AI’s Power Bill: Who Captures the Value?
A commercial investigation of data-centre electricity demand, infrastructure bottlenecks and the businesses positioned to capture value.
Offaxis Research · Energy × Technology · 25 October 2026
Single report · Individual licence · One-time purchase
Expanded 25 October: Schneider’s Q3 revenue update and H1 cash bridge; Siemens Energy’s fiscal Q3 order conversion; margin and receivables sensitivity. The manuscript is held on the server. Purchase remains closed until dedicated payment and delivery verification is complete.
Executive preview
Which power assets can turn proposed capacity into operating revenue? This report examines demand forecasts, infrastructure delivery, contract obligations and the conditions under which growth reaches suppliers’ cash flows.
The investment cycle deserves a project-by-project assessment. Equipment reservations, signed offtake and operating capacity each represent a different level of commercial evidence.
Inside the report
- Demand outlook and conflicting forecasts
- Electricity cost model and efficiency sensitivity
- Six segments: equipment, gas, nuclear, batteries, renewables and cooling
- GE Vernova, Eaton and Constellation: Q2/H1 2026 filing comparisons
- Customer advances, delivery obligations and cash-quality normalisation
- A reproducible 100 MW electricity-cost model and sensitivity table
- Backlog conversion, synthetic DCF sensitivity and reverse-underwriting questions
- Deployment scenarios, catalysts, counterarguments and thesis falsifiers
- Project conversion and diligence framework
Expanded edition / 25 October 2026
The investment question is which contract converts proposed AI capacity into cash, when that cash is earned, and which delivery obligations remain. The expanded manuscript compares equipment advances, nearer-term electrical backlog and long-dated generation commitments using dated primary disclosures.
The source register includes the IEA’s April 2026 update and Berkeley Lab’s June 2026 US report. Company financial periods are Q2/H1 ended 30 June 2026. Financial facts, original calculations, illustrative assumptions and interpretation are identified separately. No current share price or price target is assumed.
One-time individual edition: EUR 79. It is separate from editorial membership. No payment button is enabled until order amount, protected delivery and restoration have been verified.
Research standard
Primary sources, dated company disclosures, transparent calculations and explicit limits. The public preview does not include the full analysis.
Standalone industry reports are sold separately from the €5/month shared editorial membership.
25 October edition
New competitor comparison separates reporting periods, operating profit from cash, and orders from realised revenue. Calculations trace working capital and customer advances instead of treating backlog as shareholder cash.